Predictive risk floorSystem 01 / 10

QUANTPROP // VERIFIED CASE STUDY

Real-Time Predictive Risk Engine

Predictive edge. Controlled risk.An event-driven sports analytics and risk platform with versioned policy evaluation, immutable alert evidence, exact wager capture, append-only settlement, leakage-safe replay, CLV measurement, and regression watchdogs.

AI CAPABILITY PLANEProbability, governance, and evidence operating as one controlled decision loop

Market + StatcastVerified inputs

Feature blendingForm + context

Simulation enginesMonte Carlo + NB

Risk gatesEdge + watchdogs

RecommendationHuman execution

Verified

Simulation intelligence

Runs probabilistic game and player-outcome scenarios.

Market + featuresProbability + edge

Verified

Model governance

Tracks calibration, cohorts, regression, and promotion status.

Model telemetryGate decision

Verified

Evidence generation

Preserves versioned alerts, accepted prices, settlement, and CLV.

Decision stateAuditable record

01 // SYSTEM TOPOLOGY

Connected architecture

Event-driven decision platform spanning source acquisition, feature computation, probabilistic scoring, governed recommendation delivery, settlement, and closed-loop model monitoring.

PlatformData planeEdge / externalAuthority / control

01 // Source acquisition

Market feedsSportsbook lines + price movement

WHYEstablishes trusted analytical inputs

MLB / StatcastPlayer, game + pitch features

WHYEstablishes trusted analytical inputs

Weather contextVenue + game conditions

WHYEstablishes trusted analytical inputs

02 // Orchestration

Airflow control plane24 scheduled and event-driven DAGs

WHYMakes pipeline execution repeatable

Quality contractsFreshness, schema + cohort checks

WHYMakes pipeline execution repeatable

03 // Operational data

TimescaleDB27-table analytical system of record

WHYStores current and historical decision state

RedisHot features + execution state

WHYStores current and historical decision state

04 // Model intelligence

Feature blendingForm, matchup, park + market signals

WHYTurns features into probability estimates

Probability enginesNegative binomial + Monte Carlo

WHYTurns features into probability estimates

05 // Decision governance

Edge + tier policyGold, Silver + Bronze contracts

WHYConstrains recommendations and authority

Circuit breakersRegression and hit-rate gates

WHYConstrains recommendations and authority

Focus Contract v2Versioned pure policy evaluator

WHYConstrains recommendations and authority

Alert evidence ledgerImmutable runs, chunks + picks

WHYConstrains recommendations and authority

06 // Measurement loop

Exact wager captureAccepted line, price, stake + time

WHYMeasures outcomes against recommendations

Settlement ledgerAppend-only exact-game revisions

WHYMeasures outcomes against recommendations

Policy replayRevision-pinned leakage-safe evaluation

WHYMeasures outcomes against recommendations

CLV analyticsPrice-quality measurement

WHYMeasures outcomes against recommendations

07 // Observability

Grafana20-panel operational evidence

WHYMakes system health and outcomes visible

PrometheusPipeline and service health

WHYMakes system health and outcomes visible

SupersetAnalytical exploration

WHYMakes system health and outcomes visible

08 // Feedback + authority

Model watchdogsCalibration, cohort + promotion gates

WHYKeeps final authority with operators

Operator controlAlerting + manual execution authority

WHYKeeps final authority with operators

GOVERNED OUTCOMEFocus Contract v2 is deployed across the lab cluster with two-sided paper recommendations, immutable delivery evidence, closing snapshots, settlement, policy replay, and a completed post-deploy acceptance run; automatic wagering remains disabled.Ingest → Evaluate → Evidence → Capture → Settle → Replay → Gate

QUANTPROP— EVIDENCE CHAIN

1Market SnapshotVerified
2Focus Contract v2Verified
3Alert EvidenceVerified
4Wager CaptureVerified
5Closing EvidenceVerified
6SettlementVerified
7Policy ReplayVerified

253 TESTS • 7 EVIDENCE MIGRATIONS • DEPLOYMENT ACCEPTED

AUTOMATIC WAGERING DISABLED

PURPOSEA recruiter-readable visual summary of the detailed topology above; verification labels preserve the boundary between demonstrated, pending, and historical evidence.

02 // PROOF LIBRARY

Evidence gallery

Claim state: VerifiedArtifact type: Verified runtime captureReviewed: 2026-07-27

Live model track record

Read-only Grafana evidence showing 3,145 graded recommendations, realized win rate, outcome distribution, and performance segmented by tier and market over the selected 30-day view.

Open full evidence QuantProp private operational Grafana dashboard; captured through a temporary least-privilege Viewer account and sanitized of infrastructure identifiers

Claim state: VerifiedArtifact type: Verified runtime captureReviewed: 2026-07-27

Daily performance telemetry

Operational trend view exposing day-level variance instead of presenting only aggregate outcomes; adjacent tables retain market and tier context.

Open full evidence QuantProp private operational Grafana dashboard; read-only Viewer capture with infrastructure and account details excluded

Claim state: VerifiedArtifact type: Verified runtime captureReviewed: 2026-07-27

Airflow orchestration inventory

Live read-only inventory of the QuantProp DAG family, including feature computation, calibration, CLV, contract-cohort monitoring, and daily decision workflows.

Open full evidence Private Airflow control plane; temporary Viewer account with account identity redacted

Claim state: VerifiedArtifact type: Verified runtime captureReviewed: 2026-07-27

MLflow promotion-gate history

Forty tracked model-validation and promotion-gate runs demonstrate an auditable evaluation history rather than an unversioned model claim.

Open full evidence Private MLflow experiment tracker; host and infrastructure identifiers excluded

Claim state: VerifiedArtifact type: Repository-derived evidenceReviewed: 2026-07-27

Orchestration control plane

Sanitized repository facts spanning 24 DAG files, ingestion, model controls, settlement, CLV, and watchdogs.

Open full evidence Local QuantProp DAG source and SYSTEM.md; not live telemetry

Claim state: VerifiedArtifact type: Repository-derived evidenceReviewed: 2026-07-27

Model promotion gates

Public rendering of verified shadow, calibration, cohort-health, warning, alert, and manual-authority logic.

Open full evidence Local QuantProp watchdog source; synthetic presentation of verified logic

Architecture mapAvailable now

Sanitized logical topology with evidence states.

Dashboard / DAGAvailable now

Sanitized repository-derived dashboard or orchestration evidence is included above.

Video / demo clipCapture pending

A short captioned product proof is still required.

Product screenshotAvailable now

Reviewed product-interface evidence is included above.

NEXT CONVERSATIONDiscuss this architecture

Explore how this delivery pattern can be adapted to a governed enterprise deployment.

Contact Alonzo Next: BIBLE BUDDIES

PRIVATE REVIEW ROOMSensitive evidence stays private

Production endpoints and restricted artifacts remain disconnected until an identity provider and access policy are explicitly configured.